Friday, July 8, 2016

Domestic Terror in Dallas

The group that committed the vile police shooting in Dallas was a group called "Black Knights Sniper Assassins" which seems to be a sub-group of "Black Power Political Organization." According to news sources, the BPPO showed up on social media about five months ago, posting pictures of what appear to be black Africans with sniper rifles shooting the weapons, hiding in bushes, and working as such military members would do.

The suspect killed by police officers, Micah X Johnson, said that he was “upset about the Black Lives Matter [protest], about recent police shootings, upset at white people, and he wanted to kill white people, especially white officers."

What caught my eye was the "upset about the Black Lives Matter [protest]." This may be some extreme group, as the Nation of Islam was back in the 1960s, that decides that peaceful protest is not the means to deal with perceived problems, but violent, radical action. The BPPO was putting increasingly disturbing pictures and material on their social media feeds -- all have since been taken down, but it's unclear if it was by the media organizations or the group itself. What does seem to be clear is they do not have any known connection to Black Lives Matter, but chose this time and place to lash out in the sick, twisted way terrorists do.

Dallas police have several suspects in custody, and hopefully the local police working with the FBI can find out more about this group and locate further members. As an educated guess, as a person that studies and teaches on terrorism, I'd say this is a fringe group in the style of Weather Underground or the Symbionese Liberation Army, that used violence to forward their extremist, fringe causes.

My main concern is that we are dealing with a well organized terrorist group that had this well planned and obviously knew what they were doing. They say they will strike again, and I don't doubt that at all.

I work with retired and active police on a regular basis, and know that the vast majority of police do their job honorably, and in no way can such a twisted act or murder by the group be justified. My heartfelt condolences to the families of the five officers that were killed in their line of duty, and also to the families of the two civilians that lost their lives in this brutal act.

Monday, July 4, 2016

There will be no #Texit

Since the #Brexit vote, some folks in Texas have been pushing the idea for a #Texit, or Texas seceeding  from the United States.  This has been in Texas politics for a long time, and it rears its head now and then, but since the people of the UK voted to have their government begin a process of leaving the EU, some people in Texas have been re-energized in their ideas about Texas leaving the Union and becoming its own country.

The obvious difference is that the UK is a sovereign nation leaving a group of other sovereign nations, much as if the US said it were leaving the United Nations or Nigeria saying it were leaving OPEC.  Further, the referendum that was passed in the UK was just that, a non-binding referendum to gauge what the people of the UK felt about staying or leaving the European Union.  The government could simply choose to ignore the result -- it would cause some political upheaval, but unless Parliament specifically invokes Article 50 of the Treaty of European Union, there will be no true "Brexit."  

The Constitution explains how new States may join the Union in Article IV, Section 3, Clause 1:

New States may be admitted by the Congress into this Union; but no new States shall be formed or erected within the Jurisdiction of any other State; nor any State be formed by the Junction of two or more States, or parts of States, without the Consent of the Legislatures of the States concerned as well as of the Congress.

Back in 2013 there was a movement to split California up into six separate States but that interesting political bowel movement went nowhere.  To split a state into multiple states, both the Legislature of the State in question AND Congress would have to approve, probably by a 2/3 majority (there is no exact formula here, but 2/3 is what is usually used for serious matters.)  The State Legislature wouldn't allow that, never mind Congress -- the chaos that would ensue as pieces of States wanting to break off from others would potentially cause a collapse.

However, nothing in IV.3.1 says anything about State leaving the Union.  The Confederate States attempted to leave the Union illegally, and we know where that went.  A conservative notable no less than Justice Antonin Scalia said that States have no legal right to exit the Union.  So any referendum on #Texit or #Calexit or any other #exit would have no legal standing, and even if everyone in Texas voted in a hypothetical referendum to leave the USA, it would have no judicial effect.  It might, if it turned rowdy enough, provoke that "invasion" of Texas that Gov. Abbot thought was about to occur last year by the Obama Administration.

That said, a referendum could be held in a State to ask its legislature to explore what legal means of secession could be initiated.  Since there is no process, the State of Texas would have to explore what means could be created.  I can see two ways that a legal process could be created, but neither would ever really occur.

The "easier" road (note the scare quotes) would be to bring a bill to the floor of the Congress that deals with secession.  This hypothetical bill would have to be proposed by members of Congress, go through a Committee (probably Judiciary, as this would pertain to laws of the United States), and have to also go to the other house and its Judiciary Committee.  It would almost certainly die there, as our noble Solons realize they'd be signing on to the death warrant of the United States -- Texas hypothetically leaving the Union legally would spark a slew of other States doing the same thing.

Even if it passed the Committees, it would have to then be voted on by Congress, probably on a 2/3 majority.  Again, it is almost certain our career politicians in Washington would never allow their jobs to be removed willingly like this.  But even say it passed Congress, it would almost certainly be vetoed by the President, and both houses would have to over-ride the veto.  Fat chance.

But let's be really cheeky and say that somehow it made it through Congress AND the President.  Then, the slew of lawsuits that would come up against it would stall it forever.  The lawsuits would have to wind their way through the courts, and eventually up to the Supreme Court, which would have to block it as there is no Constitutional means for a State to leave once it's in.

Of course, Congress could attempt to create an Amendment to the Constitution which would allow secession.  But do you see our career Solons even attempting such a thing?  Two-thirds of both the House and Senate would have to approve the draft Amendment (right..that will happen), and then it would go to the State Legislatures for their approval, again needing 2/3 of States to approve it and make it an Amendment.  I can't see 2/3 of the States voting for a dissolution of the Union.  Congress would be more likely to put through a bill trying to allow secession, and somewhere along the process above it would be killed.  

BUT, let's be really, really cheeky and say the SCOTUS approved the law.  Then, Texas would have to formally ask (via its Legislature and then its members of Congress) to leave the Union.  Whatever process were in the Law would have to be enacted and Congress would have to vote on their leaving, probably by a 2/3 majority.  Remember that what is happening here is that Texas would become a foreign nation -- the Law would not just have a system to leave, it would also have to explain exactly what the relationship to the remaining USA the new nation would have.

State lines would suddenly become an international border -- checkpoints would have be put in place.  People going to the US from Texas would need a Texas passport.  The political, social and economic upheaval would not be worth any desire for independence from Washington for Texas or any other State.  Businesses in Texas would have to do biz in the USA as foreign companies, rather than as members of the United States.  The chaos would be utterly insane.  Plus, a slew of OTHER laws would already have to be on the books to explain exactly what all these relationships would be.  Again, fat chance!

The other way this could in theory be legally done would be bypassing Congress and Texas trying to get 33 other States to form a Constitutional Convention to propose an Amendment to the Constitution that would allow a legal separation.  Good luck with that!  There has never been a Constitutional Convention invoked by the States, and even though it is perfectly enshrined in the Constitution itself, only the most libertarian Americans would see such a grouping as valid for such a serious matter.

Even if the 33 actually got together to do this, Congress would still have to provide legislative rules to the Convention, which almost certainly would be so convoluted it would nix any real chance of a secession amendment being put in.

But even if they did create such a proposed Amendment, 2/3 of State Legislatures would have to approve of said Amendment, and as I pointed out above with the Congressional attempt at an amendment, this would be signing the death warrant of the USA.  Not gonna happen.  AND even if it did, Congress would still have to create all the laws necessary to create a relationship between any new nation and the remaining USA.

So...people in Texas and elsewhere can dream of leaving the USA and falling into utter ruin, but at least Texas Gov. Greg Abbot seems to think this is a bad idea.  He is courting British businesses to move to Texas to take advantage of low taxes, and that's not a bad idea at all.  Let's hope it stays right there.

Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Moral Entrepreneurs and the "Boogeyman de Jour"

"Transgender people want to go into bathrooms, assault women, and rape kids."

The fear that innocent women, children and the treasured institutions of the USA are going to be warped by people not fitting themselves into the established gender paradigm is simply a new iteration of a longstanding methodology.

There is a long history in this country of the Moral Police peddling fear about all kinds of "different" people that are going to destroy the fabric of the USA. Between 1845 and 1850, when around one million Irish came into the USA, the moral police came out and railed against these Mick "Papists" that would fill our cities and destroy America. Then it was Italians and Jews about forty years later, it was Blacks coming up out of the South to Northern cities, it was Chinese, opium and the "Yellow Peril", it was Mexicans smoking marijuana and going on murder binges, it was jazz and jazz musicians that were destroying America, it was the dangerous move of Truman racially integrating the military and causing its inevitable collapse, it was Vietnamese driven as refugees by the war there that were a threat...on and on and on.

The Stonewall Riots in the 60s gave what sociologist Howard Becker called the Moral Entrepreneurs of the USA a fresh target: the Homo Peril. As homosexuals went from quietly asking the Establishment for some level of acceptance to advocates for equality, the Moral Police trotted out every possible argument about how "The Queers" were going to destroy the fabric of American society. Soon they'd be in your schools, molesting your kids! Queers will be pressing up against you at work! We must do something! Homosexuals were a great target because as racism was becoming somewhat passé, the Bible condemns homosexuality! Whoo hoo!

Now that homosexuals have pretty much gone the road of assimilation, a new boogeyman was needed, some marginalized group that can be trotted out as the new threat de jour...let's see....aha! Transgender people that want to go into bathrooms, assault women and rape kids! Oh no! We must do something about this! Even though there is not one...NOT ONE.. reported incident of an actual TG person attacking a woman or a kid in a bathroom, this new boogeyman will fly high for a while. The "horror" that women, kids and treasured institutions will be mangled by guys who think they are women will have decent play for some amount of time, as it fits the bill of "moral decay."

I suspect in a few years, as this one heads out of the mind of Americans, some new fear will need to be found, some horrid boogeyman that lurks in the shadows, waiting to do something destructive to the fabric of American society. Sociologist Barry Glassner wrote a seminal work on this topic called "The Culture of Fear." It really is required reading for anyone that wants to see how Moral Entrepreneurs peddle this nonsense to the public via the media, and people who like their information in simple, easy to digest bites scarf it down like a starving dog given a bowl of food.

Just as views on gay marriage literally turned 180 degrees in about 14 years, from 57% disapproving and 35% approving in 2001, to 55% approving and 39% disapproving in 2015 , I suspect that in fairly short order, Americans will start to be less concerned about this, the Moral Police will find another disappointing end to this moral crusade, and a new boogeyman will need to be found. What that group will be is an interesting question.

Opinion: Why 2020 is NOT 2016

According to all polling, Trump is going to lose this election.  Now,  I know Trump supporters are smirking, saying "Yeah. Remember 20...